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02/09/2010 - Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Terry made 6-of-9 three-point tries, finishing with a season-high 36 points, along with nine assists and six rebounds, as Dallas took control in the fourth quarter in a 127-117 victory over Golden State.
It appeared as if the Warriors were on their way to snapping an eight-game losing streak, but the Mavericks outscored the hosts 37-19 in the final frame to earn just their second win in six games, which included a home setback to the lowly Timberwolves on Friday.
Jason Kidd recorded 17 points and 12 assists, while Josh Howard and Drew Gooden added 25 and 24 points, respectively, for Dallas, which received a 15- point, eight-rebound effort from Dirk Nowitzki. Gooden also pulled down 10 caroms in a winning cause.
Anthony Morrow paced the Warriors with 33 points and 11 rebounds, while Stephen Curry donated 25 points and nine assists in the loss.
Golden State's leading scorer, Monta Ellis, netted 27 points but went to the ground hard after making a driving layup late in the fourth quarter. He stayed on the floor for a moment, favoring his left knee before gingerly walking under his own power to the bench.
"I was just praying that he was alright, me coming off that knee injury and him having a knee injury like that earlier in his career it was just tough seeing that, so I just wanted to run down there and make sure he was alright," Morrow said. "I was glad he got up on his own, I just hope it's not as bad as it seemed like it was."
Ellis has a sprained knee. He's scheduled to have an MRI Tuesday.
Dallas, which trailed by as many as 14, took its first lead of the night, 108-106, on Nowitzki's three-point play with 6:40 left in regulation.
The free throw capped a 14-4 spurt, and the Mavs continued to build momentum in front of a suddenly silent Oracle Arena crowd.
A pair of Gooden makes at the stripe finished off eight straight Dallas points and resulted in a 116-110 game with 4:51 left.
Ellis went down a minute later, and Golden State didn't have the fire power to match Dallas' hot streak from the field, making just one field goal over the final 5:55 to fall short yet again.
The Mavericks missed their first six shots from the floor and found themselves down 12-3 after four minutes of action.
Jose Barea's late three-pointer cut the deficit to 34-29 heading to the second, but the Warriors scored the first seven points of the stanza -- capped by a Curry three-pointer -- for a 12-point lead.
Golden State continued to play front-runner until the fourth, taking a 70-61 lead into the locker room and upping the difference to 98-90 with 12 minutes to play.
Game Notes
Anthony Tolliver chipped in 14 points and 11 boards for the Warriors, who committed seven of their 15 turnovers in the fourth quarter...Ronny Turiaf also scored 14 points for Golden State...Dallas shot 52.1 percent from the field and made 12-of-22 from three-point range.
<< Ducks win 10th in a row at home, snap LA's victory streak
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Corey Perry had a goal and two assists to lead
the Anaheim Ducks to a 4-2 win over Los Angeles and snap the Kings' franchise-
best nine-game winning streak.
Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne each had a goal and an
<< James, Westbrook take home NBA weekly honors
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James and
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook were named the Eastern and
Western Conference Players of the Week, respectively, for the period ending
Februar
<< Lady Vols rally to beat Vandy
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelley Cain scored a career-high 19 points
and No. 5 Tennessee came back from an eight-point deficit to top Vanderbilt,
69-60, to sweep the regular season series.
Glory Johnson, Angie Bjorklund and Aly
<< Lombardi's career night propels Phoenix over road-weary Oilers
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matthew Lombardi had a career-high five-point
night with a pair of goals and three assists, as Phoenix blew out Edmonton,
6-1, for its seventh win in eight games.
Ilya Bryzgalov turned aside 33 shots for t
Hoyas head north to battle Friars >>
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a statement victory, the
Georgetown Hoyas are slated to collide with the Providence Friars this evening
in a Big East Conference affair.
Georgetown had lost two of its previous three games heading
Alabama visits Kentucky in SEC action >>
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Alabama Crimson Tide invade Rupp Arena
this evening for an SEC clash with the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats.
Alabama is a respectable 13-10 overall, but that record is overshadowed by a
3-6 mark versus l
Illini and Badgers square off in Big Ten brawl >>
Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini carry a four-game
win streak into tonight's Big Ten Conference battle with the 11th-ranked
Wisconsin Badgers, who are tough to beat in Madison.
Illinois has quietly gotten itself in
Ranked foes meet in Big Ten battle >>
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Michigan State Spartans
will try to keep their slim hold on the top spot in the Big Ten tonight, as
they host the sixth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena.
After opening their Big T
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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